Could $5,000 DOGE Stimulus Checks Really Happen? Here’s What Economists Say

President Donald Trump and Elon Musk have suggested that American taxpayers could receive $5,000 DOGE stimulus checks as a direct refund from federal spending cuts. The proposal, which hinges on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) achieving $2 trillion in savings, has sparked debate among economists, policymakers, and financial analysts.

But is this windfall really possible? Experts say don’t count on it just yet.

DOGE Savings: The Key to Stimulus Checks

Under the proposal, 20% of savings from government cuts would be returned to citizens as stimulus checks. However, even Musk himself cast doubt on the feasibility of reaching the $2 trillion savings target.

According to Musk, DOGE had saved $55 billion as of last week. But a major accounting error—which mistakenly listed an $8 million contract cancellation as an $8 billion savings—suggests the real savings may be closer to $16.5 billion.

“I’m just not sure the savings are there,” said Jay Zagorsky, a professor at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business.

Even if DOGE meets its target, the plan requires congressional approval, making its passage highly uncertain.

Would DOGE Stimulus Checks Cause Inflation?

Some experts argue that large-scale stimulus checks could increase inflation by injecting too much money into the economy too quickly.

“Mailing out large checks to large numbers of people is going to put a big boost to inflation,” said Zagorsky, pointing to Trump’s tariffs as another driver of rising prices.

However, Kevin Hassett, Trump’s National Economic Council Director, pushed back on that claim, arguing that giving back unspent government funds wouldn’t necessarily be inflationary.

“If we don’t spend government money and we give it back to the people, if they spend it all, then you’re even. But they’re probably going to save a lot of it, in which case you’re reducing inflation.”

Experts Call the DOGE Dividend ‘Unrealistic’

Despite Musk and Trump’s enthusiasm, many economists remain skeptical that the stimulus checks will ever materialize.

“DOGE won’t achieve enough savings to issue checks big enough to create inflation,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

She called the idea of a DOGE dividend “ridiculous”, adding:

“There’s no money there, and certainly not enough to make a big contribution to taxpayers. The guy just says things.”

With uncertainty surrounding DOGE’s actual savings, a lack of congressional support, and inflationary concerns, the $5,000 DOGE stimulus checks remain more of a political promise than an economic reality—at least for now.

Follow Joburg ETC on Facebook, Twitter , TikTok and Instagram

For more News in Johannesburg, visit joburgetc.com