Big Trouble for Petrol Prices in May as Rand Crashes Past R19

After two months of fuel price cuts, South African motorists may be in for a rough ride in May 2025 as global market volatility and political uncertainty drive the rand past R19 to the dollar, raising alarm bells for petrol prices.

Rand Takes a Hit as Trump Tariffs Shake Global Markets

The month of April kicked off with major turbulence. On Wednesday, April 2, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new import tariffs, including a 30% tariff on South African goods—a move that has rattled global markets and currency exchanges.

Although South Africa’s key exports like gold and platinum are exempt, the news has still sent the rand tumbling. Combined with local political instability, the currency’s value has plummeted, hovering beyond R19 to the US dollar.

The immediate impact? Rising concern over petrol price hikes in the coming month.

What the Numbers Say

According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the country is currently seeing a mixed bag of fuel price movements:

• Petrol 93: increase of 15 cents per litre

• Petrol 95: increase of 9 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): decrease of 26 cents per litre

• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): decrease of 28 cents per litre

• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 16 cents per litre

While diesel continues to benefit from global oil price drops, petrol is showing signs of a potential price increase due to the rand’s rapid decline.

Why the Oil Price Drop Isn’t Helping Much

Ordinarily, a drop in crude oil prices would be a good sign. OPEC+ has increased output, driving prices down to below $69 per barrel — a decline from highs seen earlier in March. However, this relief is being cancelled out by the weak rand.

The average oil price is still slightly higher than it was in early March 2025, meaning South Africa’s fuel cost recoveries vary:

• Petrol: under-recovery of 9 to 15 cents per litre

• Diesel: over-recovery of up to 35 cents per litre

In short, weaker local currency = more expensive fuel imports, even if global oil prices drop.

Political Drama Adds Fuel to the Fire

Beyond the global factors, South Africa’s internal politics are shaking investor confidence.

Tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU) escalated after the Democratic Alliance (DA), the second-largest party in the coalition, voted against the 2025 national budget—a move that exposed deep rifts within the GNU.

While the ANC managed to pass the budget with the help of smaller parties outside the coalition, markets are wary. With the GNU’s future uncertain, many economists warn that any collapse of the coalition could spark a governance crisis, further weakening the rand.

What Comes Next?

The fuel price outlook for May remains highly volatile. Early data suggests that petrol prices may rise, while diesel prices might drop slightly. But with Trump’s tariffs, market panic, and local political instability all in play, things could change fast.

South Africans will have to wait for mid-April for a clearer forecast—but for now, it seems big trouble is brewing at the pumps.

Source BusinessTech}

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