South African Fuel Prices Set to Rise in March—But There’s a Silver Lining

Motorists in South Africa are bracing for a fuel price increase in March 2025, as the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) reveals ongoing under-recoveries in both petrol and diesel prices.

However, despite the looming hikes, a steady rand and global oil fluctuations could bring some relief before the end of the month.

How Much Will Fuel Prices Increase?

As of mid-February, fuel price adjustments for March are expected to be:

• Petrol 93: ↑ 26 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: ↑ 13 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ↑ 8 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): No change
• Illuminating paraffin: ↑ 20 cents per litre

While petrol and paraffin are set to rise, diesel is showing signs of potential stabilization, with the possibility of no increase for some grades.

What’s Driving the Fuel Price Hike?

Global Oil Prices Weigh on Recoveries

Oil prices remain the biggest challenge, contributing 9 to 34 cents per litre in under-recoveries, depending on fuel type.

Recent geopolitical developments have influenced oil markets:

• Reports suggest US President Donald Trump is opening peace talks with Russia over the Ukraine invasion, leading to speculation about increased global oil supply.
• Brent crude prices have slipped, as investors anticipate reduced supply disruptions from a possible resolution.
• However, concerns over Trump’s proposed trade tariffs have raised fears about slowed global economic growth and dampened oil demand.

The Rand Holds Steady—Offering Some Relief

The rand-dollar exchange rate is currently helping to offset fuel price increases, contributing a positive 8 to 9 cents per litre in over-recoveries.

Despite market uncertainty, the rand has remained resilient due to dollar weakness, rather than inherent strength.

• The dollar took a hit after Trump’s controversial diplomatic moves, including his softer stance on Russia and potential tariff wars.
• The local currency weakened slightly against the euro (0.7%) and the pound (1.3%), but remained stable against the dollar.

What This Means for Motorists

For now, fuel prices are still expected to increase in March, but the trend is moving in a more positive direction.

• If the rand holds firm and oil prices continue to soften, the expected diesel increase could be wiped out, and petrol hikes might be less severe.
• However, any sudden shifts in global trade or geopolitical events could change the outlook before the final price adjustment at the end of February.

While motorists should prepare for an increase at the pumps, the steady rand and lower oil prices could bring some relief in the coming weeks.

If trends continue, March’s fuel price adjustments may not be as harsh as initially feared. Keep an eye on updates from the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) for final fuel price announcements.

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