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Fuel Price Relief Expected for South Africans in May as Oil Drops and Rand Recovers
Motorists across South Africa can breathe a sigh of relief as early data points to a decrease in petrol and diesel prices for May 2025. The drop in fuel costs is being driven by a global crash in oil prices and a recent recovery in the rand-dollar exchange rate—factors that are now playing in motorists’ favour.
According to the Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) latest mid-month snapshot, both petrol and diesel prices are on track to fall:
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Petrol 93: down by 15 cents per litre
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Petrol 95: down by 18 cents per litre
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Diesel 0.05%: down by 38 cents per litre
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Diesel 0.005%: down by 39 cents per litre
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Illuminating paraffin: down by 31 cents per litre
While the CEF’s data is not final—official prices are only confirmed at month-end by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy—the projections indicate a welcome turnaround for consumers.
What’s Driving the Drop?
The two main drivers behind this potential price drop are:
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Weaker Global Oil Prices:
A dramatic fall in international oil prices followed US President Donald Trump’s global tariff war, which began with a 25% tariff on vehicle imports on April 2, followed by a sweeping 10% export tariff on April 5. This rattled markets, sent oil prices down by $10 per barrel, and raised fears of a global recession, reducing demand for oil. -
Rand Recovery:
The rand initially took a hit earlier in April as South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) showed signs of internal fracture. The Democratic Alliance (DA)’s opposition to the 2025 budget caused market jitters. However, recent negotiations helped calm tensions, stabilizing the coalition and allowing the rand to strengthen from nearly R20/$ back below R19/$.
Expected May 2025 Fuel Prices
Here’s how fuel prices are expected to look at the pumps in May:
Inland Prices
| Fuel Type | April Official | May Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R21.51 | R21.36 |
| 95 Petrol | R21.62 | R21.44 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R19.32 | R18.94 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R19.35 | R18.96 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R13.36 | R13.05 |
Coastal Prices
| Fuel Type | April Official | May Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R20.72 | R20.57 |
| 95 Petrol | R20.83 | R20.65 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R18.53 | R18.15 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R18.59 | R18.20 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.36 | R12.05 |
Note: Diesel prices listed are wholesale. Pump prices may vary.
Looking Ahead
While markets remain volatile and geopolitical tensions continue to influence global trade, South Africa’s fuel outlook for May 2025 appears stable for now. The combination of recovering currency strength and softer oil markets is providing welcome relief at the pumps.
Still, with the 90-day tariff reprieve set to expire in July, and the GNU’s internal dynamics remaining uncertain, motorists are advised to stay updated as global events continue to impact local fuel prices.
{Source: BusinessTech}
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