BHP Says It’s Poised to Gain Amid Trump-Led Global Volatility Despite Tariff Warnings

Global mining heavyweight BHP says it’s strategically positioned to benefit from growing global uncertainty and a “flight to quality” in assets, even as it warns of potential fallout from US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.

In its third-quarter operational review released Thursday morning, BHP said it had achieved record production of both copper and iron ore year-to-date as of the end of March. The Australia-, London- and JSE-listed firm added it was on track to meet its full-year guidance.

BHP CEO Mike Henry was upbeat about the company’s standing in uncertain times, saying,

“We are poised to benefit from a flight to quality with tier one assets, industry-leading margins and high-return organic growth opportunities that will underpin value and returns through the cycle.”

Yet he didn’t shy away from acknowledging risks. Henry flagged that while the direct impact of Trump’s tariffs on BHP may be limited, the broader effects on global economic growth and trade fragmentation could prove more serious.

“The implication of slower economic growth and a fragmented trading environment could be more significant,” he warned. “China’s ability to shift toward a consumption-led economy and for trade flows to adapt to the new environment will be key to sustaining the global outlook.”

Tariffs and the China Factor

While Trump recently paused new tariff hikes following his symbolic “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2, the US is maintaining up to 245% in import duties on Chinese goods. The escalating trade war could hit China’s economy—the world’s top consumer of critical minerals like copper—which in turn could affect global demand for BHP’s outputs.

BHP, a major supplier of materials essential to renewable energy transitions, emphasized strong performances in copper, iron ore, and steelmaking coal, and said its potash project in Canada is progressing on track.

Failed Anglo Bid and Copper Ambitions

The quarterly update comes shortly after BHP’s failed attempt to acquire Anglo American in a deal initially valued at R727 billion. The company returned with a revised offer, sweetening the deal by 10%, but was ultimately turned down. Analysts saw the bid as a clear play to boost BHP’s access to copper mines in Chile and Peru, which Anglo owns.

Copper has become a strategic asset in the global green transition, and BHP appears committed to expanding its role in that space.

“BHP’s performance in FY25 to date demonstrates the resilience of our business,” Henry added.

Resilience in Uncertainty

While BHP stands to gain from investors turning to reliable assets amid market volatility, the risks of slowing global trade and consumption, particularly in China, remain front of mind.

The company’s future gains may depend not only on its production strength but on how adeptly it navigates a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical tension and protectionist policies.