South Africa’s Load Shedding Recovery: How 2024 Marked a Turning Point for Energy Stability

South Africa’s economy took a devastating hit of R2.8 trillion in 2023 due to rotational load shedding, the worst power crisis in the country’s history. However, 2024 ushered in a dramatic turnaround, with the nation experiencing over 300 consecutive days without power cuts between April and December.

This improvement was highlighted in the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) 2024 utility-scale power generation statistics report, which provided insights into Eskom’s performance, electricity prices, and the role of renewable energy in stabilizing the grid.

A Year of No Load Shedding: What Changed?

According to the CSIR report, a combination of factors contributed to South Africa’s remarkable recovery in 2024:

• Increased Energy Availability Factor (EAF): Eskom’s EAF rose from an average of 55% in 2023 to 60% in 2024 due to reduced unplanned plant failures and improved maintenance strategies.
• Reduced Diesel and Gas Usage: The need for costly diesel generators dropped from 12% in 2023 to just 6% in 2024, thanks to higher coal plant efficiency.
• Declining Electricity Demand: A 3% decrease in demand, driven by private sector investments in embedded solar photovoltaic (PV) generation, eased pressure on the national grid.

Private Sector Solar Generation Plays a Key Role

Private sector participation in energy generation was a game-changer in 2024. The CSIR report revealed that embedded solar PV generation contributed 2.3 terawatt-hours (TWh) in the first three months of the year when the country still experienced some power cuts. By mid-year, this additional capacity significantly reduced dependence on Eskom’s grid.

Dr. Thabo Hlalele, head of the CSIR energy centre, noted, “The residual decline in electricity demand can largely be attributed to the increase in rooftop solar and other embedded generation sources.”

Electricity Prices Keep Rising Despite Recovery

Despite the power stability, electricity prices in South Africa continued their upward trend. The national average tariff increased by 12.74% in 2024, reaching approximately 195 c/kWh—significantly higher than the cost of renewable energy alternatives, such as solar PV and wind, which range between 50-60 c/kWh.

The report also highlighted that:

• Electricity prices in South Africa have increased by 190% since 2014, far outpacing the average inflation rate of 5.2% over the same period.
• The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) approved a 12.74% tariff hike for 2024, exceeding the inflation rate of 4.4%.

South Africa’s Renewable Energy Growth

The Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement (REIPPP) programme continues to expand, with renewable energy generation growing by 723% since 2014. However, 2024 saw no new capacity additions compared to 2023.

Over the past decade, the REIPPP programme has introduced:

• 3,443 MW of wind power
• 2,287 MW of large-scale solar PV
• 500 MW of concentrated solar power (CSP)

With electricity demand shifting towards private generation, South Africa’s future energy landscape is expected to rely more on renewables and decentralized power solutions.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for South Africa’s Energy Sector?

While 2024 marked a turning point in South Africa’s energy stability, challenges remain. The high cost of electricity, limited new renewable capacity, and long-term grid resilience will be key concerns for businesses and households alike.

If Eskom continues to improve its plant performance and private sector energy investments grow, South Africa may finally move beyond its decade-long load shedding crisis. However, electricity affordability remains a pressing issue that policymakers must address.

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