South Africa’s Grain Harvest Sees 11% Boost, Bringing Hope to Farmers

South Africa’s agricultural sector is celebrating a significant turnaround as the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) forecasts a 17.2 million tonne harvest for the 2024-25 season—an 11% increase from the previous year. This optimistic projection is a welcome relief for farmers who faced severe drought conditions and challenging growing seasons in recent years.

A Strong Recovery for Maize and Sunflower Seeds

The CEC’s latest estimates highlight a robust recovery in key crops. The commercial maize crop is projected to reach 13.9 million tonnes, an 8.26% increase from the previous season’s 12.85 million tonnes. White maize production is expected to rise by 22%, while yellow maize production may see a slight decline of 4%, attributed to shifts in planting areas.

Sunflower seed production is also set to grow significantly, with a forecast of 720,050 tonnes—a 13.93% increase from last year’s 632,000 tonnes. This growth is driven by a 5.05% increase in planted area, reflecting farmers’ confidence in the crop’s potential.

A Much-Needed Turnaround

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), noted that the improved harvest is a sign of recovery after a difficult 2023-24 season. “We have been stating for some time that this will likely be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture,” Sihlobo said. “This follows a severe mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season, which negatively impacted the harvest of grains and oilseeds.”

The CEC’s preliminary estimates, released in February 2025, suggest that widespread rains and favorable growing conditions have contributed to the improved outlook. Sihlobo added that further upward revisions to the harvest forecast are possible as the season progresses.

Farmers’ Perspectives

Bennie van Zyl, general manager of farming association TLU SA, expressed gratitude for the recovery in summer rainfall areas. “It was a very late start, and we were concerned about the drought and whether there was enough time for the crops to go through all the phases in time for the harvest,” he said. While some individual farmers faced challenges due to late rains, the overall outlook is positive for South Africa and the broader Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.

Dr. André van der Vyver, an executive director of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (Sacota), noted that the late start to the season and varying rainfall patterns made crop estimation difficult. However, recent rains have improved yield prospects, and further increases are expected in the next CEC estimate.

Challenges Remain

Despite the positive forecasts, farmers continue to face significant challenges. Francois Rossouw, CEO of the Southern African Agri Initiative (Saai), highlighted issues such as infrastructure limitations and rising input costs. “The projected 11% increase in summer grain and oilseed production is good news for the agricultural sector, especially following the severe drought conditions,” Rossouw said. “However, farmers still face significant challenges that need to be addressed to sustain this growth.”

A Boost for the Economy

The improved harvest is not only a win for farmers but also for the broader economy. Increased grain production will help stabilize food prices, support exports to neighboring countries, and contribute to food security in the region. As Sihlobo pointed out, the strong performance of crops like maize, soybeans, and sorghum is particularly encouraging for South Africa’s agricultural sector.

South Africa’s grain harvest is on track for an 11% increase in 2025, offering hope to farmers after a challenging year. With improved rainfall and favorable growing conditions, the agricultural sector is poised for recovery. However, addressing ongoing challenges such as infrastructure limitations and rising costs will be crucial to sustaining this positive momentum and ensuring long-term growth for South Africa’s farming community.

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